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November 09, 2016

US Election and Equities

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On November 9, Donald J. Trump became the US President-Elect and the Republican Party has secured both houses of Congress.

Though many polls reflected a tight race, the result was a surprise for markets and the initial reaction has been volatile. Among the sharpest initial moves were a drop in the S&P futures index, and weakening in the Mexican peso versus the US dollar and rallies in assets that have traditionally performed well in periods of volatility, such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, US treasuries and gold.

Market Outlook

We think the market reaction to the election is likely to be similar to the UK referendum scenario:

  1. A volatile, risk-off response, followed by
  2. A gradual reversal as investors recognize that changes under a Trump administration will take time to play out and the Federal Reserve is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, and then
  3. Isolated bouts of volatility as the administration’s policy priorities, and ability to execute them, become clearer 

As a result, we expect volatility to remain elevated over the near- to medium term, and we believe we are well placed to leverage opportunities should they arise.


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GSAM Fundamental Equity Team

The broad team of over 100 investment professionals brings a global reach and perspective to the investment process across nine offices worldwide. 

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