At the start of 2015 we saw this year as a pivotal point in the global recovery. Now halfway through, we check progress on the macro developments shaping our outlook. With an eventful six months already behind us – including dramatic policy easing in Europe, a burst of rates volatility, and yet another reversal in oil prices – we look to an even more dynamic second half.
- With our key themes of benign inflation, a broadening recovery and increasing policy divergence still very much intact, our Focus Piececonsiders the big questions for the months ahead.
- As for our journey so far, global growth is on a firmer trajectory as anticipated, despite a disappointingly sluggish start in the US. In our equities strategy, we have shifted some exposure from the Eurozone to the US.
- While the US edges toward a rate hike this year, challenges persist for central banks struggling with weak inflation. Disinflationary pressures have eased with the modest recovery in oil prices, but we think inflationary targets are still way out of reach in the Eurozone and Japan.
